The latest Vehicle Pricing Index (VPI) report released by TransUnion today reveals that despite a significant depreciation in the Rand and a rising cost of living, new vehicle price inflation in South Africa continued to slow in the third quarter of 2015, as economic pressure weighed heavily on the pockets of both consumers and businesses.
These factors have resulted in an increasing demand for used cars, with the VPI showing that the ratio of new to used vehicles financed has marginally widened from 1.81 (that is one new vehicle to every 1.81 used vehicles financed) to 1.83 on a year-on-year basis.
While the overall CPI increased from 4.1% to 4.3% in Q3 of 2015, new car inflation softened from 6.91% to 6.58%. Used car price inflation was also down during the period from 1.53% to 1.44%.
“The impact of macro-economic factors is clearly evident in vehicle sales, with both new and used vehicles showing a slight slowing down in price increases vs Q2, a direct result of struggling sales volumes of new vehicles and a struggling economy,” says Derick de Vries, CEO, Auto Information Solutions at TransUnion.
De Vries says that new car dealers have not been helped by the continued weakening of the Rand in the third quarter of 2015, which forced manufacturers to effect new price increases that are well above CPI rates. “In order to stimulate sales, extra incentives are offered to consumers to buy and to mitigate the increase in pricing. If there are a lot of vehicles in the system as a result of depressed sales, price inflation will continue to decrease.”
Market leader in vehicle finance, WesBank, concurs. “These marketing incentives have done a great deal to minimise the sales decline in the new vehicle market. Dealerships are managing to keep consumers coming back and getting them into new cars – it’s helped keep the replacement cycle relatively flat in an otherwise challenging market,” says Rudolf Mahoney, Head of Brand and Communications at WesBank.
De Vries adds that stockholding will become problematic for dealers if declined sales continue and manufacturers increase the stockholding days. “The new vehicle market is highly competitive and consumers are spoiled for choice, which is challenging dealers to still hold reasonable margins. The question remains; for how long can manufacturers provide sales assistance on new vehicles and what will the impact be if they take this away? The reality is that consumers will continue to seek more affordable vehicles, of which there is abundance in the used market.”
De Vries says that although marketing initiatives are stimulating new car sales, consumers are still seeing better value for money in buying used vehicles. “With household debt rising, consumers still aspire to drive a new vehicle, but simply can’t afford it. Many are prepared to settle for a used vehicle that is cheaper with higher mileage or with more extras.”
WesBank’s data corroborates this growing trend in the used market. Mahoney adds: “We measure demand through the number of finance applications received. More and more consumers are applying for finance on used cars than people applying for new car finance. Those applying are also structuring their contracts to make repayments more affordable. Contract periods are being maxed out, with the average at 69 months, and we’re seeing more demand for balloon payments too.”
De Vries says that based on the data, TransUnion does not expect any change in this trend for the rest of this year or next. “We anticipate vehicle sales figures to continue being soft in 2016, which is reflective of the overall weakness of the economy, together with the forecast of subdued growth in GDP.”
TransUnion publishes the VPI on a quarterly basis. The vehicle risk intelligence company calculates the VPI from data it receives on monthly sales returns from thousands of dealers throughout the country, as well as vehicle financing registrations from all of the major banks and vehicle finance houses.
About TransUnion (NYSE:TRU)
Information is a powerful thing. At TransUnion, we are dedicated to finding innovative ways information can be used to help individuals make better and smarter decisions. We help uncover unique stories, trends and insights behind each data point, using historical information as well as alternative data sources. This allows a variety of markets and businesses to better manage risk and consumers to better manage their credit, personal information and identity. Today, TransUnion has a global presence in more than 30 countries and a leading presence in several international markets across North America, Africa, Latin America and Asia. Through the power of information, TransUnion is working to build stronger economies and safer communities worldwide.
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Vehicle Pricing Index (VPI) – New Cars
Annual New Car Price Inflation (Y/Y % Change) – Base Year = 2008
| Year | Index | Jan -Mar | Apr – Jun | Jul -Sep | Oct – Dec | Annual VPI |
| (Jan – Dec) | ||||||
| 2000 | Index Number | 62.7 | 65.8 | 69.0 | 72.2 | 67.4 |
| y/y % Change | 12.3% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 10.2% | |
| 2001 | Index Number | 68.7 | 72.4 | 74.5 | 77.1 | 73.2 |
| y/y % Change | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.6% | |
| 2002 | Index Number | 75.9 | 83.7 | 86.5 | 89.5 | 83.9 |
| y/y % Change | 10.5% | 15.5% | 16.1% | 16.0% | 14.5% | |
| 2003 | Index Number | 87.6 | 90.6 | 91.6 | 92.1 | 90.5 |
| y/y % Change | 15.5% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 8.1% | |
| 2004 | Index Number | 89.4 | 91.2 | 92 | 92.4 | 91.2 |
| y/y % Change | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | |
| 2005 | Index Number | 89.6 | 91.4 | 92.1 | 92.4 | 91.4 |
| y/y % Change | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | |
| 2006 | Index Number | 89.7 | 91.6 | 92.5 | 93.2 | 91.7 |
| y/y % Change | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | |
| 2007 | Index Number | 92.5 | 95.2 | 96.1 | 96.2 | 95.0 |
| y/y % Change | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.5% | |
| 2008 | Index Number | 96.0 | 99.3 | 101.6 | 103.1 | 100.0 |
| y/y % Change | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.3% | |
| 2009
|
Index Number | 106.8 | 110.5 | 112.8 | 112.0 | 111.5 |
| y/y % Change | 11.3% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 10.6% | |
| 2010 | Index Number | 114.7 | 114.8 | 116.2 | 116.9 | 115.7 |
| y/y % Change | 7.4% | 3.9% | 3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | |
| 2011 | Index Number | 118.6 | 118.4 | 120.5 | 117.6 | 118.8 |
| y/y % Change | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 0.7% | 2.72% | |
| 2012 | Index Number | 121.4 | 121.2 | 123.1 | 120.1 | 121.5 |
| y/y % Change | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | |
| 2013 | Index Number | 124.3 | 124.8 | 128.2 | 126.89 | 126.0 |
| y/y % Change | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 3.8% | |
| 2014 | Index Number | 132.52 | 133.60 | 138.23 | 136.00 | 135.08 |
| y/y% Change | 6.58% | 7.01% | 7.82% | 7.18% | 7.15% | |
| 2015 | Index Number | 142.63 | 141.56 | 141.43 | ||
| y/y% Change | 7.63% | 6.91% | 6.58% |
Vehicle Pricing Index (VPI) – Used Cars
Annual Used Car Price Inflation (Y/Y % Change) – Base Year = 2008
| Year | Index | Jan -Mar | Apr – Jun | Jul -Sep | Oct – Dec | Annual VPI
(Jan – Dec) |
| 2000 | Index Number | 72.4 | 73.8 | 74.3 | 74.1 | 73.7 |
| y/y % Change | 7.0% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 12.9% | 10.7% | |
| 2001 | Index Number | 81.2 | 81.1 | 80.9 | 80.4 | 80.9 |
| y/y % Change | 12.1% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 9.8% | |
| 2002 | Index Number | 86.2 | 88.0 | 88.7 | 89.1 | 88.0 |
| y/y % Change | 6.3% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 8.8% | |
| 2003 | Index Number | 98.6 | 99.2 | 99.2 | 98.1 | 98.8 |
| y/y % Change | 14.4% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 12.3% | |
| 2004 | Index Number | 104.8 | 104.3 | 104 | 100.9 | 103.5 |
| y/y % Change | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 4.7% | |
| 2005 | Index Number | 104.9 | 103.3 | 101.5 | 98.3 | 102.0 |
| y/y % Change | 0.1% | -0.9% | -2.4% | -2.5% | -1.4% | |
| 2006 | Index Number | 101.5 | 99.7 | 98.6 | 97.0 | 99.2 |
| y/y % Change | -3.2% | -3.5% | -2.9% | -1.4% | -2.8% | |
| 2007 | Index Number | 100.8 | 99.7 | 99.2 | 97.7 | 99.4 |
| y/y % Change | -0.7% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| 2008 | Index Number | 102.6 | 100.7 | 99.5 | 97.2 | 100.0 |
| y/y % Change | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | -0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 2009
|
Index Number | 101.5 | 100.0 | 98.9 | 96.6 | 99.2 |
| y/y % Change | -1.1% | -0.7% | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.8% | |
| 2010 | Index Number | 106.0 | 105.6 | 103.1 | 99.5 | 103.6 |
| y/y % Change | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.4% | |
| 2011 | Index Number | 110.1 | 109.9 | 104.9 | 103.5 | 107.08 |
| y/y % Change | 3.8% | 4% | 1.8% | 4% | 3.4% | |
| 2012 | Index Number | 113.97 | 113 | 107.3 | 103.4 | 109.4 |
| y/y % Change | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% | -0.1% | 2.2% | |
| 2013 | Index Number | 112.4 | 110.2 | 104.0 | 101.6 | 107.0 |
| y/y % Change | -1.4% | -2.5% | -3.1% | -1.7% | -2.2% | |
| 2014 | Index Number | 113.3 | 110.87 | 105.66 | 102.97 | 108.21 |
| y/y% Change | 0.83% | 0.58% | 1.58% | 1.36% | 1.09% | |
| 2015 | Index Number | 115.22 | 114.24 | 112.82 | ||
| y/y% Change | 1.67% | 1.53% | 1.44% |
A basket of used cars was selected by taking the previous year models of all new cars included in the new basket.
Car Price Inflation (y/y % Change) – Quarterly Source: Statistics SA & TransUnion Auto Information Solutions.
